It turns out that I live in a blue county in a blue state.  Who knew?

Political scientists are trained as experts, but on the whole, our powers of prediction are not always very good.  I knew that polls in Indiana were showing a close race, but I predicted that Senator McCain would pull out a victory in our state.  I mean, really.  Indiana?  We’ve been a red state for 40 years!  Even when neighboring states all supported Clinton in 1996, we were solid Dole country.  We backed President Bush last time by over 20 points!

What was the recipe for Obama’s win?  Others will point to the impact of race, for 90% of African-American Hoosiers supported him.  A quick look at the map suggests it was primarily the urban-rural split, for it is clear that Obama fared better in larger cities and towns than in more rural parts of Indiana.  But I think the single largest factor was age.  According to the exit polls, 61% of Indiana seniors over 65 supported McCain, and he also won slim 51% majorities for all age groups between 30 and 64.  The only age group favoring Obama was young voters under the age of 30.  Sixty-four percent of voters age 25-29 backed the Democrat in Indiana, and 62% of voters aged 18-24.  That was enough support to eke out this small victory.  Because USI is an institution that prides itself on building democratic citizenship among young people regardless of political party, it was good to see record participation by young, first-time voters in our state.

Democrats had worked hard to organize in this state for the competitive primary in May, and that organization led to much larger numbers of field offices and paid staffers than in past elections.  As a result, Indiana had over 800,000 new registrants for this election cycle, and record turnout statewide.  That phenomenon could make Indiana a more competitive two party state long term.

There is one more factor, however, that we should examine.  Important national forces certainly also had a major impact on the race.  Bill Clinton won in 1992 by stressing that “It’s the Economy, stupid!” and that was no less true in this race.  Remember that national polls showed McCain as the projected leader in electoral college votes as recently as early September, following the Republican national convention.  The subsequent financial meltdown, followed by his “suspended campaign” and the debate over the bailout seems like the tipping point for this race.  McCain’s fortunes fell dramatically through the remainder of the fall in a rising Democratic national tide.  It is common for voters to hold accountable the president’s party when the economy turns sour, and McCain was victimized by these national circumstances.

Senator Obama has won the election.  Now he has to figure out how to govern, at a time when our national challenges are many.  Let’s hope that he is able to reach across the aisle and bring the change he has promised.

Thanks to all of you who voted.  It helps make our country great.

POST CONTRIBUTED BY: DR. BRIAN POSLER, assistant provost for undergraduate studies.

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